It's All About Timing

In the last century I had a client who was the part owner of two race horses. One of her co-owners was the legend that is John Francome and I remember the look on her face when she told me how she had enjoyed breakfast with the great man, before adding there were half a dozen other people at the house near Cheltenham.

Anyway today I've been thinking about that client and something she once told me. She said that when you watch the last two furlongs of a horse race and one horse starts to pull away at the front what you are actually seeing is a horse that is less tired than its rivals. I think we have seen David Cameron getting less tired than his rivals his week as the finishing post comes into view and his two main challengers begin to slowly fade.

As I write this the polls have the Conservatives on 34, Lib Dems 31, Labour 27 and to continue the horse racing metaphor bar 8. This means that when those figures are converted into votes and seats the Conservatives will be pulled up 61 seats short of an overall majority.

When I refer to David Cameron getting less tired what I'm referring to is the way that Gordon Brown now looks like a broken man, somebody who knows its all over and his facing the future prospect of a trip to the Usine de glue. Trust me you'll get bored of the horse references before I do. Nick Clegg, who began the campaign like a fresh faced colt now has the sweaty appearance of a stallion that was put out to stud prematurely.

Cameron hasn't really worked his magic he's just stood by and watched Brown make an arse of himself and then Clegg stumble at crucial points during the second and third debates. The debates have made a mockery of the British election system, for years everybody criticised Tony Blair for leading a Presidential style of Government but suddenly British politics has been reduced, at its most crucial time since 1992, to an X Factor style shootout.